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One Year Update: 38M FIREd
Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right? Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page. Expenses Overview Auto Expenses Food Expenses Home Expenses Utility Expenses Tax Expenses Healthcare Expenses Entertainment Expenses Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700. With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement. Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses. Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense. Investments: Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Traditional IRA: $299,000 -> $348,000
Roth IRA: $14,500 -> $18,150
Brokerage: $18,400 -> $22,900
Total Rollup: $331,800 -> $389,100. ~17% return
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin) HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA. $9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account. Finances Going Forward I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age. I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings. My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000. The Living Part: There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!" Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep. I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice. I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours. I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page. I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows. And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast. Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park. I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.) I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me. Personal History Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed. But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year. I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000. Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts. Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out. TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
For Trading August 26th Is the DJIA an Industrial Average? More New Highs for NAZ & S&P-500 CRM & TOL BEAT ON EARNINGS Today’s market was interesting in that the DJIA futures were higher, S&P was about unchanged, and the NASDAQ was lower, and by the close it was exactly the opposite! The DJIA finished -60.02 (.21%), NASDAQ +86.75 (.76%), S&P 500 +12.34 (.36%), the Russell +2.74 (.17%), and DJ Transports -21.60 (.19%). Market internals were neutral on NYSE at 1:1 while the NASDAQ was better @ 1.5:1 although volume was lighter than yesterday. Consumer confidence was a major disappointment with the number coming in at 84.9, down from the expectations of 93, and last month’s 91.7, the lowest number since May 2014! New home sales were a monster +13.9% v. 1.4 expected and prices added 7.2%. Earnings after the close for TOL (see below) mirrored that sentiment. Tomorrow we have both durable goods orders and weekly mortgage applications. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rdmhyt5MGtnSTbpYrv__gUUETHUDYoII/view Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/5RGgfJ667nc SECTORS: After the close, TOL reported blockbuster numbers and they were a reflection of the New Home sales numbers mentioned above. TOL is at the high-end of the price scale and the demand for its upscale homes that can include in-home offices, gyms, and other extras were clearly in demand. The stock is up 300% since the March lows and today’s numbers sent it even higher. The stock had closed $45.06 +.37, but after the report it traded up to $48.50 and at this writing it was $48.20 +2.14 (3%). Also, on the earnings front, the newest member of the DJIA, CRM was higher all day on the DJIA addition finishing $216.05 +7.57 (3.6%) and after the numbers really took off trading up to $244.50 and finishing $243.50 +27.45 (12.5%). It would have added about 160 DP’s if it had already been included. BBY made up some of its early losses after giving soft guidance for revenues in the coming quarter and after trading $108.60, it came back about half and closed $112.64 -4.73 (4%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.01, BGS +.62, FLO +.15, CPB +.34, CAG +.48, MDLZ -.09, KHC +.28, CALM -.13, JJSF -.62, SAFM +.49, HRL -1.12, SJM +7.51 (6.65%), PPC +.09, KR +.02, and PBJ $34.34 +.03 (.08%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +2.47, ABBV -.51, REGN +15.73, ISRG +3.76, GILD -.08, MYL -.32, TEVA -.43, VRTX +4.92, BHC -.04, INCY +1.27, ICPT +1.56, LABU +1.80, and IBB $132.90 +1.,85 (1.41%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.09, CGC +.29, CRON -.02, GWPH -2.77, ACB -.06, NBEV +.04, CURLF +.22, KERN +.07, and MJ $12.45 +.05 (.40%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -.38, GD -1.85, TXT -.63, NOC -1.42, BWXT +.34, TDY +2.28, RTX -.90, and ITA $168.12 -1.27 (.75%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.09, JWN -.72, KSS +.21, DDS +.48, WMT -.66, TGT -.56, TJX -.39, RL -1.13, UAA -.07, LULU +3.69, TPR -.39, CPRI -.11, and XRT $52.50 -.38 (.72%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +20.70, AMZN +36.65, AAPL -3.83, FB +11.04 (4.07%), NFLX +2.39, NVDA +2.14, TSLA +29.05, BABA +10.53, BIDU +2.82, CMG +31.23, BA -4.17, CAT -.39, DIS -.84, and XLK $120.26 +1.30 (1.09%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS -1.43, JPM +.54, BAC +.31, MS -.26, C +.56, PNC +.97, AIG -.03, TRV +.72, AXP +.23, V +1.79, and XLF $24.95 +.06 (.24%). OIL, $43.35 +.73. Oil was higher in today’s trading before we rose further in the afternoon closing up at the top end of the day’s range. Some of the gains may be storm related, but gasoline is helping support prices. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $3736.63 -.39 (1.05%). GOLD $1,923.10 -16.10, rose early in the session but couldn’t make any headway before selling off and finishing near the lows. I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $1.66. BITCOIN: closed $11,310 - 460. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $13.00 -.72 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
"I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed. But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year. I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000. Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts. Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out. TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine."
I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland. I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported. Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/ Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018 Hey all! I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉 Some history before I head into the future. I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history. In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever. On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015. In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought. The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
Investors buy because the price is less than the value they see in the investment. Speculators buy because they think that someone will pay more in the future than they are paying now.
Investors trade on information (The white paper was really well-written, had a clear technical advantage over other alternatives, and addresses a need that I can understand and value.) Speculators trade on sentiment. (Buy the rumor! Sell the news!)
Investors usually look at the investment and themselves and can describe why they purchase in those terms (ABC-Coin provides (service) that isn’t addressed yet and matches (requirements) for an investment.) Speculators usually describe why they bought something in terms of how other people think (I think that other people think that the price will rise, so I want to get ahead of that.)
Investors don’t necessarily check the price every day. The can, and very often I do, but it isn’t required because fundamentals don’t often change on a dime. Speculators need to be glued to a price feed, because sentiment very often changes on a dime.
Investors like ideas, people, business plans, and market opportunities. Good ones are like Spock. Speculators like trends. They are tribal.
Investors have a longer time horizon than speculators. In cryptoland, the notion of a “longer” time horizon is still laughably small (months) compared to traditional markets, but it certainly isn’t weeks or days or hours, which is whre speculators often live.
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8. I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money. When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it. Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
ETH will still be my core holding. It is the “deepest in the stack” crypto investment that I have. “Deep in the stack” is a programming term that gets at the idea that most software is built on other software. If you just think about your notebook, you have your OS, and programs run on that. But even inside the OS there is a stack. The bottom of your stack is the kernel, and on top of that are the drivers, protocols, and other layers that allow the programs to talk to the OS, the hard drive, the screen, the mouse, your printer, etc. You can change your mouse or printer easily. Changing things deeper in the stack becomes harder and harder. ETH is deep in the crypto stack, so is very hard to dislodge – Around 60 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap run on top of Ethereum, so getting rid of Ethereum is something that would take a long time to do.
DNT, QTUM, ZRX, and OMG are all, to varying degrees, “deep in the stack” tokens that, once established, will be very hard to dislodge.
That said, I am peeling away some of my holdings into USD right now, because big changes are afoot and they are going to cause market disruptions. I’m going to come right out and admit that this is speculative, but I’m also going to back it up with some non-speculative facts.
The SEC has been sending out hundreds of subpoenas to cryptocurrency organizations over the past 3-4 months. These subpoenas are simply asking for information and nobody has been charged with any crimes or misdoings, but it is clear that the SEC is getting together information so that they can begin to regulate cryptoland. When that happens, other countries will follow, and that means:
Some tokens will be deemed outright scams and people will be prosecuted.
Some tokens will be deemed securities and will be regulated.
Some tokens will not be deemed scams or securities and will continue as they have.
Looking at this, it is clear to me that the tokens that escape prosecution and regulation should do better, but the short-term impact will be brutal and ugly. It would not surprise me at all to see a 50% drop in overall market cap within Q1-Q2, with Q1 being more likely.
Cryptoland has always been a bit nuts, but it is more nuts now than I have ever seen it. Back in 2011-2014 it was a freaks-n-geeks show where people were all about the technology and I would sit around for a 3-day weekend installing a *nix VM on my Windows machine so that I could compile the most recent source and run a CUDA SHA-256 routine rather than thrash my CPU. If that doesn’t make sense to you, you wouldn’t have even thought about being involved.
Now, people see Bitcoin advertisements in their Facebook feed and think “I gotta get on the BTC train!” before going to Coinbase and buying some with a credit card. They don’t know anything about crypto, and they are getting eaten alive – It is no coincidence that BTC peaked after the Thanksgiving holidays when people sat around the table and Janice got Uncle Mike and Cousin Bob all excited as she talked about going to Cancun for Christmas because of her crypto winnings. Huge amounts of fiat got transferred from newbies to BTC whales during this period, and once the whales were done, BTC had dropped from $20,000 to $12,000. It’s now back at $15,000, but for people who bought at a higher level, this sucks. As a result many have moved from BTC to ETH, with the single biggest money flow in crypto in December being the BTC à ETH flow. As a result, it’s no coincidence that ETH is at all-time highs now. The thing is, though, that even most people that moved from BTC to ETH really have no idea what they are doing. They are acting on buzzwords and emotion. They are speculators and are going to get crushed.
The stock market is quite high right now, but people are starting to worry that it is too high and that we are going to enter into a period of inflation again. This has caused gold to go up a lot the last quarter and is likely also responsible a bit for the rise in cryptos. If this view is correct, then cryptos stay stronger than if that pressure wasn’t there. If wrong, then cryptos will swing down as money exits cryptoland for more traditional markets.
I am spending most of my time and money on the arbitrage effort. The nice thing about arbitrage is that it works as the markets go up, and it works as the markets go down. When markets are too volatile, however, arbitrage can get very messy and dangerous, with each trade generating a loss instead of a profit, so I am working right now to tune the algorithms to take into account rate-of-change and add in some circuit breaker triggers. Once this is done I will expand those operations.
I am getting much more serious about systems security.
I have a Nano Ledger and recommend that anyone with >$1000 of crypto have one. The Trezor is also supposed to be good, but I haven’t used it.
I will set up a dedicated *nix notebook that is used for nothing except my crypto work. All it takes is one keylogger to get on your PC/Mac and your crypto is gone. What is on your Nano Ledger will be OK, but they will sweep out your exchange account or Coinbase account faster than you can type. A standard Linux installation with Chrome and nothing else is as about as secure as you can get in the civilian world.
If you don’t use LastPass or a similar password manager yet, you need to do that. Your password to LastPass should be at least 16 characters long and should not have a recognizable English word in it. If you think that “Iluvu4evah” is a secure password, you’re wrong.
Hackers know that “4”=”for” and “u”=”you”. Writing a script to substitute those in is trivial if they want to write the script, but it’s much easier for them to download one of the many, many programs out there that already do this.
If your password contains any string of numbers from anything that can be associated with you at any time in your life, it is insecure. Take those numbers out of the character count because they are an insignificant barrier to cracking your account.
The good news is that you probably won’t be targeted, but if you ever mention online that you are doing anything significant in crypto, that chance increased enormously.
*Never* talk with *anyone* about how much you have in crypto. You’ll notice that I haven’t here. There is no reason to tell even a family member how much you have unless you are sharing a tax form. Sure, you may trust them, but all it takes if for someone to overhead someone else mention at a party that a relative got into crypto a long time ago and made a bunch of money. That person can also then be subjected to the $10 hack and force you to send all your crypto to them.
Your password to LastPass (Or equivalent.) should look something like this -> 6k0jQMoziX&D#4W8
Yes, it’s a headache. Imagine your headache, though, were you to open your account one day and find all of your money gone.
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way. ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto. iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve. iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments. Happy 2018.
What can the earlier days of Bitcoin teach us about holding Ethereum?
Recently, I was thinking back to my first exposure to crypto, after talking with a couple of my coworkers who shared their own, more recent experience with me. It was late 2013 when I first bought BTC, but I had heard about Bitcoin a couple of years earlier. I thought the idea of internet money that nobody controlled sounded like a scam, so I stayed clear. I couldn't really understand the value proposition and didn't take the time to understand how it works (hindsight is 20/20). That started to change in early 2013. I learned much more about Bitcoin, which at the time was the only blockchain of any consequence, and began to understand the trustless nature of this revolutionary technology and how it would change the world. But what drew me in was the price. For those of you who weren't around then, it's worth taking a minute to open up that chart on Coinbase and see what that bump was in the grand scheme of things. See what now looks like a relatively little blip there in late 2013? That was when Bitcoin went roughly 10x in a month- from a $100 valuation to a $1000 valuation. I signed up for a Coinbase account shortly before Thanksgiving. Over that Thanksgiving, I spent the whole holiday / weekend talking to my family about how revolutionary this technology was- and wow, were they confused and unable to fathom it. To me, it seemed so obvious. Price increases have a way of "revealing" unassailable logic in situations like these. It took a while for Coinbase to approve my account, but I could hardly wait for that. I was on eBay, seeing if I could buy Casascius Coins. They were appealing to me at the time, because they merged an asset that was completely virtual with something that was tangible. My brain had still not fully accepted paying so much money for something that "didnt' exist" in real life. But the speculation was soaring so high on those coins (double the BTC value or more) that I decided to pass. Soon thereafter, I finally got access to Coinbase and bought my first Bitcoin for around $900. And then the price dropped, and it kept dropping. But I kept on buying, knowing that this is how asset markets worked. The price was going down, but for something this revolutionary, it would have to eventually go back up...at least that's what I was hoping. I bought all the way down to prices in the low $400s. And then in June 2014, I abruptly sold them all, at a sizable net loss. Why did I do that? What was going through my mind to make such a rash decision? Well, open that chart back up. The price had cratered down into the $230s and seemed to be stuck at these new lows- it was a winter that started earlier in that year and never ended. And the Mt Gox debacle was completely soul crushing and I really felt that my hopes for the success of a decentralized currency were completely dashed. And back then, there were no other alt coins to FOMO into. It was Bitcoin or (mostly) nothing. Besides, I had a major home purchase underway and decided that my money was better going into that rather than holding Bitcoin. In hindsight, I sold at what turned out to be the close to the bottom of Bitcoin. And then just look at that chart. A slow and steady increase over years, with $1000 only being reached again in March of this year. And as we enter Thanksgiving 4 years later, some of you are going to have these same conversations with your own families about Ethereum. I can tell you what some of them are going to say: "Internet money? I wouldn't invest in something like that. Who controls it? Isn't this just for criminals?" "Smart contracts? Even if they do work, what's the point of having them when you have regular contracts? And why does XYZ service even need to be decentralized?" "This whole thing sounds like a bubble. I hope you don't have much money in this..." So what does all of this teach us about holding Ethereum?
For many of your friends and family next week, it will be the first time they've heard of concepts like smart contracts or even cryptocurrency in any depth, but if Bitcoin is our teacher, it won't be the last. Take the time to explain it, but don't be pushy about it. Plant the seed, walk away, and send articles to them over the course of the next year.
Bitcoin's $1000 moment reminds me of ETH's $420 moment. Many new buyers FOMO'ed in and are still waiting for their returns, with many likely abandoning the path along the way. Most of the actual buyers of Bitcoin in 2013 then were "nerds" who were fascinated by the technology because they were among the few who took the time to understand it and felt comfortable putting large amounts of money into something on the internet. I would suggest that most recent ETH buyers are still in this "nerd" territory, without real mainstream understanding of what it is.
We are in what seems like a "long winter," with ETH stagnant at around $300. But it is unlikely our next big run will take 4 years to develop. I'm thinking a period of 3 to 12 months. The space isn't what it used to be, with massive institutional money coming and a very vibrant and mainstream-accepted development community. Those among you who were smart bought every token they could during the July depression. If that happens again, you know what to do.
Even if we had another Mt Gox style event (I won't name any exchanges or pegged tokens), it would probably not have the same impact as Mt Gox had. The system is much more diverse and resilient against such events now. There would be a drop, but it would be (hopefully) short lived.
If you just hold long enough, the price is very likely to go up. Possibly substantially up. Maybe even life changing amounts up. You understand the technology and the potential. Don't doubt yourself on your original thesis, like I did with Bitcoin a few years ago. The future picture for ETH has only gotten better in recent months.
So learn from Bitcoin, and don't screw this up for yourselves by taking rash actions- driven by impatience or outsized greed. I am not always one for hyperbole, but I am not exaggerating when I say that you may honestly regret it for the rest of your life.
On May 6th, 2017, Bitcoin hit an all-time high in transactions processed on the network in a single day: it moved 375,000 transactions which accounted for a nominal output of about $2.5b. Average fees on the Bitcoin network had climbed over a dollar for the first time a couple days prior. And they kept climbing: by early June average fees hit an eye-watering $5.66. This was quite unprecedented. In the three-year period from Jan. 1 2014 to Jan. 1 2017, per-transaction fees had never exceeded 31 cents on a weekly average. And the hits kept coming. Before 2017 was over, average fees would top out at $48 on a weekly basis. When the crypto-recession set in, transaction count collapsed and fees crept back below $1. During the most feverish days of the Bitcoin run-up, when normal users found themselves with balances that would cost more to send than they were worth, cries for batching — the aggregation of many outputs into a single transaction — grew louder than ever. David Harding had written a blog post on the cost-savings of batching at the end of August and it was reposted to the Bitcoin subreddit on a daily basis. The idea was simple: for entities sending many transactions at once, clustering outputs into a single transaction was more space- (and cost-) efficient, because each transaction has a fixed data overhead. David found that if you combined 10 payments into one transaction, rather than sending them individually, you could save 75% of the block space. Essentially, batching is one way to pack as many transactions as possible into the finite block space available on Bitcoin. When fees started climbing in mid-2017, users began to scrutinize the behavior of heavy users of the Bitcoin blockchain, to determine whether they were using block space efficiently. By and large, they were not — and an informal lobbying campaign began, in which these major users — principally exchanges — were asked to start batching transactions and be good stewards of the scarce block space at their disposal. Some exchanges had been batching for years, others relented and implemented it. The question faded from view after Bitcoin’s price collapsed in Q1 2018 from roughly $19,000 to $6000, and transaction load — and hence average fee — dropped off. But we remained curious. A common refrain, during the collapse in on-chain usage, was that transaction count was an obfuscated method of apprehending actual usage. The idea was that transactions could encode an arbitrarily large (within reason) number of payments, and so if batching had become more and more prevalent, those payments were still occurring, just under a regime of fewer transactions. “hmmm” Some sites popped up to report outputs and payments per day rather than transactions, seemingly bristling at the coverage of declining transaction count. However, no one conducted an analysis of the changing relationship between transaction count and outputs or payments. We took it upon ourselves to find out. Table Of Contents: Introduction to batching A timeline Analysis Conclusion Bonus content: UTXO consolidation
Introduction to batching
Bitcoin uses a UTXO model, which stands for Unspent Transaction Output. In comparison, Ripple and Ethereum use an account/balance model. In bitcoin, a user has no balances, only UTXOs that they control. If they want to transfer money to someone else, their wallet selects one or more UTXOs as inputs that in sum need to add up to the amount they want to transfer. The desired amount then goes to the recipient, which is called the output, and the difference goes back to the sender, which is called change output. Each output can carry a virtually unlimited amount of value in the form of satoshis. A satoshi is a unit representing a one-hundred-millionth of a Bitcoin. This is very similar to a physical wallet full of different denominations of bills. If you’re buying a snack for $2.50 and only have a $5, you don’t hand the cashier half of your 5 dollar bill — you give him the 5 and receive some change instead. Unknown to some, there is no hardcoded limit to the number of transactions that can fit in a block. Instead, each transaction has a certain size in megabytes and constitutes an economic incentive for miners to include it in their block. Because miners have limited space of 2 MB to sell to transactors, larger transactions (in size, not bitcoin!) will need to pay higher fees to be included. Additionally, each transaction can have a virtually unlimited number of inputs or outputs — the record stands at transactions with 20,000 inputs and 13,107 outputs. So each transaction has at least one input and at one output, but often more, as well as some additional boilerplate stuff. Most of that space is taken up by the input (often 60% or more, because of the signature that proves they really belong to the sender), while the output(s) account for 15–30%. In order to keep transactions as small as possible and save fees, Bitcoin users have two major choices: Use as few inputs as possible. In order to minimize inputs, you can periodically send your smaller UTXOs to yourself in times when fees are very low, getting one large UTXO back. That is called UTXO consolidation or consolidating your inputs. Users who frequently make transfers (especially within the same block) can include an almost unlimited amount of outputs (to different people!) in the same transaction. That is called transaction batching. A typical single output transaction takes up 230 bytes, while a two output transaction only takes up 260 bytes, instead of 460 if you were to send them individually. This is something that many casual commentators overlook when comparing Bitcoin with other payment systems — a Bitcoin transaction can aggregate thousands of individual economic transfers! It’s important to recognize this, as it is the source of a great deal of misunderstanding and mistaken analysis. We’ve never encountered a common definition of a batched transaction — so for the purposes of this study we define it in the loosest possible sense: a transaction with three or more outputs. Commonly, batching is understood as an activity undertaken primarily by mining pools or exchanges who can trade off immediacy for efficiency. It is rare that a normal bitcoin user would have cause to batch, and indeed most wallets make it difficult to impossible to construct batched transactions. For everyday purposes, normal bitcoiners will likely not go to the additional effort of batching transactions. We set the threshold at three for simplicity’s sake — a normal unbatched transaction will have one transactional output and one change output — but the typical major batched transaction from an exchange will have dozens if not hundreds of outputs. For this reason we are careful to provide data on various different batch sizes, so we could determine the prevalence of three-output transactions and colossal, 100-output ones. We find it helpful to think of a Bitcoin transaction as a mail truck full of boxes. Each truck (transaction) contains boxes (outputs), each of contains some number of letters (satoshis). So when you’re looking at transaction count as a measure of the performance and economic throughput of the Bitcoin network, it’s a bit like counting mail trucks to discern how many letters are being sent on a given day, even though the number of letters can vary wildly. The truck analogy also makes it clear why many see Bitcoin as a settlement layer in the future — just as mail trucks aren’t dispatched until they’re full, some envision that the same will ultimately be the case for Bitcoin. Batching
So what actually happened in the last six months? Let’s look at some data. Daily transactions on the Bitcoin network rose steadily until about May 2017, when average fees hit about $4. This precipitated the first collapse in usage. Then began a series of feedback loops over the next six months in which transaction load grew, fees grew to match, and transactions dropped off. This cycle repeated itself five times over the latter half of 2017. more like this on coinmetrics.io The solid red line in the above chart is fees in BTC terms (not USD) and the shaded red area is daily transaction count. You can see the cycle of transaction load precipitating higher fees which in turn cause a reduction in usage. It repeats itself five or six times before the detente in spring 2018. The most notable period was the December-January fee crisis, but fees were actually fairly typical in BTC terms — the rising BTC price in USD however meant that USD fees hit extreme figures. In mid-November when fees hit double digits in USD terms, users began a concerted campaign to convince exchanges to be better stewards of block space. Both Segwit and batching were held up as meaningful approaches to maximize the compression of Bitcoin transactions into the finite block space available. Data on when exchanges began batching is sparse, but we collected information where it was available into a chart summarizing when exchanges began batching. Batching adoption at selected exchanges We’re ignoring Segwit adoption by exchanges in this analysis; as far as batching is concerned, the campaign to get exchanges to batch appears to have persuaded Bitfinex, Binance, and Shapeshift to batch. Coinbase/GDAX have stated their intention to begin batching, although they haven’t managed to integrate it yet. As far as we can tell, Gemini hasn’t mentioned batching, although we have some mixed evidence that they may have begun recently. If you know about the status of batching on Gemini or other major exchanges please get in touch. So some exchanges have been batching all along, and some have never bothered at all. Did the subset of exchanges who flipped the switch materially affect the prevalence of batched transactions? Let’s find out.
3.1 How common is batching? We measured the prevalence of batching in three different ways, by transaction count, by output value and by output count. The tl;dr. Batching accounts for roughly 12% of all transactions, 40% of all outputs, and 30–60% of all raw BTC output value. Not bad. 3.2 Have batched transactions become more common over time? From the chart in 3.1, we can already see a small, but steady uptrend in all three metrics, but we want to dig a little deeper. So we first looked at the relationship of payments (all outputs that actually pay someone, so total outputs minus change outputs) and transactions. More at transactionfee.info/charts The first thing that becomes obvious is that the popular narrative — that the drop in transactions was caused by an increase in batching — is not the case; payments dropped by roughly the same proportion as well. Dividing payment count by transaction count gives us some insight into the relationship between the two. In our analysis we want to zoom into the time frame between November 2017 and today, and we can see that payments per transactions have actually been rallying, from 1.5 payments per transaction in early 2017 to almost two today. 3.3 What are popular batch sizes? In this next part, we will look at batch sizes to see which are most popular. To determine which transactions were batched, we downloaded a dataset of all transactions on the Bitcoin network between November 2017 and May 2018from Blockchair. We picked that period because the fee crisis really got started in mid-November, and with it, the demands for exchanges to batch. So we wanted to capture the effect of exchanges starting to batch. Naturally a bigger sample would have been more instructive, but we were constrained in our resources, so we began with the six month sample. We grouped transactions into “batched” and “unbatched” groups with batched transactions being those with three or more outputs. We then divided batched transactions into roughly equal groups on the basis of how much total output in BTC they had accounted for in the six-month period. We didn’t select the batch sizes manually — we picked batch sizes that would split the sample into equal parts on the basis of transaction value. Here’s what we ended up with: All of the batch buckets have just about the same fraction of total BTC output over the period, but they account for radically different transaction and output counts over the period. Notice that there were only 183,108 “extra large” batches (with 41 or more outputs) in the six-month period, but between them there were 23m outputs and 30m BTC worth of value transmitted. Note that output value in this context refers to the raw or unadjusted figure — it would have been prohibitively difficult for us to adjust output for change or mixers, so we’re using the “naive” estimate. Let’s look at how many transactions various batch sizes accounted for in the sample period: Batched transactions steadily increased relative to unbatched ones, although the biggest fraction is the small batch with between 3 and 5 outputs. The story for output counts is a bit more illuminating. Even though batched transactions are a relatively small fraction of overall transaction count, they contain a meaningful number of overall outputs. Let’s see how it breaks down: Lastly, let’s look at output value. Here we see that batched transactions represent a significant fraction of value transmitted on Bitcoin. As we can see, even though batched transactions make up an average of only 12% of all transactions, they move between 30%-60% of all Bitcoins, at peak times even 70%. We think this is quite remarkable. Keep in mind, however that the ‘total output’ figure has not been altered to account for change outputs, mixers, or self-churn; that is, it is the raw and unadjusted figure. The total output value is therefore not an ideal approximation of economic volume on the Bitcoin network. 3.4 Has transaction count become an unreliable measure of Bitcoin’s usage because of batching? Yes. We strongly encourage any analysts, investors, journalists, and developers to look past mere transaction count from now on. The default measure of Bitcoin’s performance should be “payments per day” rather than transaction count. This also makes Bitcoin more comparable with other UTXO chains. They generally have significantly variable payments-per-transaction ratios, so just using payments standardizes that. (Stay tuned: Coinmetrics will be rolling out tools to facilitate this very soon.) More generally, we think that the economic value transmitted on the network is its most fundamental characteristic. Both the naive and the adjusted figures deserve to be considered. Adjusting raw output value is still more art than science, and best practices are still being developed. Again, Coinmetrics is actively developing open-source tools to make these adjustments available.
We started by revisiting the past year in Bitcoin and showed that while the mempool was congested, the community started looking for ways to use the blockspace more efficiently. Attention quickly fell on batching, the practice of combining multiple outputs into a single transaction, for heavy users. We showed how batching works on a technical level and when different exchanges started implementing the technique. Today, around 12% of all transactions on the Bitcoin network are batched, and these account for about 40% of all outputs and between 30–60% of all transactional value. The fact such that a small set of transactions carries so much economic weight makes us hopeful that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to scale on the base layer, especially if usage trends continue. Lastly, it’s worth noting that the increase in batching on the Bitcoin network may not be entirely due to deliberate action by exchanges, but rather a function of its recessionary behavior in the last few months. Since batching is generally done by large industrial players like exchanges, mixers, payment processors, and mining pools, and unbatched transactions are generally made by normal individuals, the batched/unbatched ratio is also a strong proxy for how much average users are using Bitcoin. Since the collapse in price, it is quite possible that individual usage of Bitcoin decreased while “industrial” usage remained strong. This is speculation, but one explanation for what happened. Alternatively, the industrial players appear to be taking their role as stewards of the scarce block space more seriously. This is a significant boon to the network, and a nontrivial development in its history. If a culture of parsimony can be encouraged, Bitcoin will be able to compress more data into its block space and everyday users will continue to be able to run nodes for the foreseeable future. We view this as a very positive development. Members of the Bitcoin community that lobbied exchanges to add support for Segwit and batching should be proud of themselves.
Bonus content: UTXO consolidation
Remember that we said that a second way to systematically save transaction fees in the Bitcoin network was to consolidate your UTXOs when fees were low? Looking at the relationship between input count and output count allows us to spot such consolidation phases quite well. Typically, inputs and outputs move together. When the network is stressed, they decouple. If you look at the above chart carefully, you’ll notice that when transactions are elevated (and block space is at a premium), outputs outpace inputs — look at the gaps in May and December 2017. However, prolonged activity always results in fragmented UTXO sets and wallets full of dust, which need to be consolidated. For this, users often wait until pressure on the network has decreased and fees are lower. Thus, after transactions decrease, inputs become more common than outputs. You can see this clearly in February/March 2017. Here we’ve taken the ratio of inputs to outputs (which have been smoothed on a trailing 7 day basis). When the ratio is higher, there are more inputs than outputs on that day, and vice versa. You can clearly see the spam attack in summer 2015 in which thousands (possibly millions) of outputs were created and then consolidated. Once the ratio spikes upwards, that’s consolidation. The spike in February 2018 after the six weeks of high fees in December 2017 was the most pronounced sigh of relief in Bitcoin’s history; the largest ever departure from the in/out ratio norm. There were a huge number of UTXOs to be consolidated. It’s also interesting to note where inputs and outputs cluster. Here we have histograms of transactions with large numbers of inputs or outputs. Unsurprisingly, round numbers are common which shows that exchanges don’t publish a transaction every, say, two minutes, but instead wait for 100 or 200 outputs to queue up and then publish their transaction. Curiously, 200-input transactions were more popular than 100-input transactions in the period. We ran into more curiosities when researching this piece, but we’ll leave those for another time. Future work on batching might focus on: Determining batched transactions as a portion of (adjusted) economic rather than raw volume Looking at the behavior of specific exchanges with regards to batching Investigating how much space and fees could be saved if major exchanges were batching transactions Lastly, we encourage everyone to run their transactions through the service at transactionfee.info to assess the efficiency of their transactions and determine whether exchanges are being good stewards of the block space. Update 31.05.2018 Antoine Le Calvez has created a series of live-updated charts to track batching and batch sizes, which you can find here. We’d like to thank 0xB10C for their generous assistance with datasets and advice, the people at Blockchair for providing the core datasets, and David A. Harding for writing the initial piece and answering our questions.
Nowadays, the Bitcoin currency rate perhaps is the most unpredictable thing. All predictions about how BTC price will increase or drop are in some way similar to the weather forecasts. No one can tell what will happen to the coin tomorrow. One of the most important factors that experts rely on is the history of the currency rate over the whole period of BTC existence with its dynamics. It is essential to know what was happening to the coin as this allows you to understand what can happen to it in the future.
The first digital currency – Bitcoin – came to the world on January 9, 2009. In the same month, the creator of Bitcoin mined the first block and he also made the first financial operation in the BTC system. At the beginning of its history, the Bitcoin price was ridiculously low. The first exchange of BTC to US dollars was made in the summer of 2009 when Martti Malmi received 5.02 USD for his 5050 Bitcoins. The first official Bitcoin exchange rate to the fiat dollar was established on October 9, 2009. At that time, for 1 dollar you could buy 1 309.03 BTC. Many people now regret that they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for pennies.
In 2010, events in the cryptocurrency market began to develop more intensively. The Bitcoin Market exchange was opened in February 2010, where it was possible to sell the digital coin. In May of this year, the most well-known deal with Bitcoin had happened. The programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It was the first purchase using cryptocurrency in the real world. He posted a request on the crypto forum saying that he wanted to buy two pizzas. In exchange for that, he offered 10K Bitcoins that back then cost about 40 dollars. And there was a person who agreed to have this deal – it was the 19 years old Jeremy Sturdivant. Jeremy didn’t become a millionaire since then as he spent his coins to travel across the USA. As for Laszlo, he doesn’t regret about the lost millions. He was mining coins for his pleasure at that time and spent them to different non-significant things. The two pizzas bought by Laszlo In July of 2010, BTC price raised to 0.08 dollars. Then in November, the price went up for 50 percent. In general, 2010 was an excellent period for strengthening the position of Bitcoin. The digital currency was almost able to reach the point of one dollar.
BTC overcame the point of 1 dollar only in February of 2011. By early June, the price had grown to 10 dollars. This was a small victory for Bitcoin. Another maximum was set at the point of $31.91. In the middle of June 2011, there was a sharp drop in price: from 31.91 again to 10 dollars. The year 2011 was full of negative events. One of them happened on June 13, when a user’s electronic wallet was first hacked and 25 thousand coins were stolen from there. In a few days, some geeks hacked MtFox exchange where they got data of sixty thousand users. These events negatively affected the Bitcoin rate. It became clear that in the future the price of digital currency will be determined taking into consideration any events that occur in the market.
In 2012, the exchange rate was ranging from 8 to 12 dollars per 1 BTC. This period was also rich in significant events. One of them is that Bitcoin Central bank began its work. This bank received a license and was even recognized by European regulators.
February 22, 2013, was the day when Bitcoin began to grow again. The price reached the mark of $30. Another increase occurred at the end of January – $31.9. The upward trend continued. March 22 rate was 74.9 dollars per BTC. On the first day of April, the price went up to $100 and within another nine days, the BTC price grew to 266 dollars. But the growth did not last long. By October it was $109. The possible reason for that is the arrest of an anonymous trading platform Silk Road. Since November 2013, the price of Bitcoin began to grow anew. By the end of the month, the price exceeded all expectations and raised up to $1,200 per coin. The reason for overcoming the $1,000 point was the BTC support by Zynga game creator. Experts also noted another event that could affect the growth: one of the higher education institutions in Cyprus started accepting the Bitcoin as payment for tuition. But by the end of the first week of December, the price was 1,000 dollars. In the middle of December 2013, the BTC price dropped to 600 dollars because the China Central Bank prohibited the country’s financial institutions to maintain operations with cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin price chart in November, 2013
During the year 2014, there happened rather a significant amount of events that had an impact on the Bitcoin volatility. In the first days of January, 1 BTC was equal to 770 dollars. In February it was 700 dollars. Summer 2014 slightly strengthened the reputation of the cryptocurrency. Many experts think that it was 2014 when BTC strengthened its position in the market, in spite of the fact that Bitcoin price was low – by the end of the year it settled in at around 310 dollars. In 2014 investors began to consider Bitcoin as a potential investment as Bitcoin price predictions seemed quite attractive.
At the beginning of 2015, the BTC price started rising: with 177 dollars in January to 281 dollars to March. The number of people who were trading Bitcoin increased – there were about 160,000 people was buying and selling BTC on exchanges by August 2015. In one period of 2015 the Bitcoin price grew up to 500 dollars, but to the end of 2015, it dropped to about 350 USD.
In 2016, Japan declared Bitcoin as a currency and allowed to use it to pay for goods and services. South Africa was the next who did the same. In April 2016, BTC rate went up and reached $454 per coin. By the end of May, 1 BTC was already worth $600. The reason for the price increase might be the growth of the number of transactions in the Chinese market. The highest price in 2016 was in December – $950 for one Bitcoin.
The year of 2017 was an incredible period in respect of BTC price. It started with $1,000 for 1 coin. Already in June, it was $2,600. By the beginning of September, the price jumped to $5,000 per 1 BTC. On December 17, the Bitcoin price achieved a record and was over 20,000 US dollars. How did this happen? Here are some reasons that experts point due to the growth of Bitcoin price:
In 2017 social media broadcasted a lot of information about Bitcoin and the blockchain system;
China resumed cashout of bitcoins from the Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges;
In December 2017, the United States officially allowed trading futures for Bitcoin;
The number of companies and people who were buying BTC increased as they considered Bitcoin the profitable investment and etc.
However, later in December, the price plummeted from 20 000 dollars to 12 000 dollars. Experts had different reasons including that one of the first cryptocurrency creators sold out all his digital savings and called such investments too risky.
During the first 4 months of 2018, the price of BTC dropped below 7,000 USD. These negative dynamics were quite logical because the rise is always followed by the fall. For the first time since October 2017, the Bitcoin price fell below 6,000 dollars. On November 25, the price of Bitcoin fell even lower – $3,676 per 1 BTC. By mid-December, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 80% to its yearly rate, the price was $3,200.
What can we expect in 2019? What Bitcoin price predictions do crypto experts have? People hope that 2019 will bring new opportunities for Bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies. Some investors and crypto enthusiasts predict that the BTC price will grow to 40 – 50,000 USD by the end of 2019. One of them, John McAfee, is assured that the price will rise to 1 million dollars by the end of 2020. He even had a bet that he posted in his Twitter saying that he would eat his “love muscle” if his BTC price prediction will not come true. There may be a number of factors that can influence the BTC price in 2019. They are:
Nasdaq, the world’s second largest exchange plans to launch futures for Bitcoin;
Coming out of the first crypto-ETP in the world;
and many other unpredictable factors that can change the price of Bitcoin.
As it was said before, Bitcoin price predictions are almost like the weather forecast – you never know what price it will have tomorrow. If you think about investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency you should follow its rate at present time but never forget to compare it to the past. But please, don’t bet to eat any of your body parts 🙂
The Statue of Liberty, Mystery Babylon, Freemasonry and The New Roman Empire / Fourth Reich
The Mother of Exiles and the Destruction of Babylon
I've always thought Mystery Babylon in Revelations was America. Lots of signs point to that. Inanna/Ishtar was known as the Whore of Babylon and Mother of Prostitutes because she supposedly started the practice of sacred prostitution. Inanna was the goddess of love, beauty, sex, desire, fertility, war, combat, justice, and political power. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sacred_prostitution
Sacred prostitution, temple prostitution, cult prostitution, and religious prostitution are general terms for a sexual rite consisting of sexual intercourse or other sexual activity performed in the context of religious worship, perhaps as a form of fertility rite or divine marriage (hieros gamos). Some scholars prefer the term sacred sex to sacred prostitution in cases where payment for services was not involved.
But some scholars believe that this practice never existed and has been misunderstood.
The practice of sacred prostitution has not been substantiated in any Ancient Near Eastern cultures, despite many popular descriptions of the habit. Through the twentieth century, scholars generally believed that a form of sacred marriage rite or hieros gamos was staged between the king of a Sumerian city-state and the High Priestess of Inanna, the Sumerian goddess of sexual love, fertility, and warfare, but no certain evidence has survived to prove that sexual intercourse was included. Along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers there was a temple of Eanna, meaning house of heaven dedicated to Inanna in the Eanna District of Uruk.This will be relevant in my next post about the source of Yahweh's narcissism but for now, I'm just using this to illustrate part of the reason I think America is Babylon.
The Sumerians worshipped Inanna as the goddess of both warfare and sexuality. Unlike other gods, whose roles were static and whose domains were limited, the stories of Inanna describe her as moving from conquest to conquest. She was portrayed as young and impetuous, constantly striving for more power than she had been allotted.
An asteroid will pass directly in front of Regulus, one of the brightest stars in our night sky, next Wednesday — briefly blacking out the star in what astronomers are calling a “once in a lifetime” event. Better yet, New York City falls directly within the viewing path which is literally paper-thin on the earths scale. The event is so small, and so brief, that it will only be visible over a sliver of area. And this area happens to encompass millions of people in New York City, Northeast NJ and Long Island.
On Thursday, March 20 2014, Regulus will participate in a rare celestial event when an asteroid passes directly in front of the star, as seen from Earth. The asteroid in question is 163 Erigone. Asteroid 163 Erigone is about 45 miles (72 km) wide, but its "shadow" slanting to Earth's surface will be 67 miles (108 km) wide. Erigone's shadow will move on a southeast-to-northwest trajectory and will extend from New York City as well as western and central Long Island to Oswego in New York State, and then continues northwest, the length of Ontario to the Hudson Bay shore of Manitoba. Those who are within the shadow path and watching at just the right moment with just their eyes will see an amazing sight: Regulus will seem to abruptly disappear as if a switch had been thrown, blotted out by the tiny invisible asteroid. Regulus will remain invisible for up to 14 seconds (for those situated along the center of the path); an incredible, albeit very brief occurrence.
This "once in a lifetime event" eclipsing right over New York. Where the Statue of Liberty is. Revelations 17
There I saw a woman sitting on a scarlet beast that was covered with blasphemous names and had seven heads and ten horns. 4 The woman was dressed in purple and scarlet, and was glittering with gold, precious stones and pearls. She held a golden cup in her hand, filled with abominable things and the filth of her adulteries. 5 The name written on her forehead was a mystery: 15 Then the angel said to me, “The waters you saw, where the prostitute sits, are peoples, multitudes, nations and languages. 16 The beast and the ten horns you saw will hate the prostitute. They will bring her to ruin and leave her naked; they will eat her flesh and burn her with fire. 17 For God has put it into their hearts to accomplish his purpose by agreeing to hand over to the beast their royal authority, until God’s words are fulfilled. 18 The woman you saw is the great city that rules over the kings of the earth.”
America's colors are red, white and blue. Red+Blue = Purple. Purple apparently represents royalty as well as vanity. Scarlet represents the blood of Christ and martyrs.
The color purple is also associated with royalty in Christianity, being one of the three traditional offices of Jesus Christ, i. e. king, although such a symbolism was assumed from the earlier Roman association or at least also employed by the ancient Romans. In Europe and America, purple is the color most associated with vanity, extravagance, and individualism. Among the seven major sins, it represents vanity. It is a color which is used to attract attention
**8.Bartholdi planned for the statue to be covered in gold.**In order to make the statue visible after dark, Bartholdi proposed that Americans raise the money to gild her. However, given how daunting and arduous a task it had been to gather even enough money to place the statue in New York harbor, no one followed through on paying the enormous cost of covering the massive statue in gold.
Not to mention this little interesting fact that brings the 2nd Beasts actions that are spoken of to mind.
:The second beast was given power to give breath to the image of the first beast, so that the image could speak and cause all who refused to worship the image to be killed. :**9. Thomas Edison once had plans to make the statue talk.**When Edison introduced the phonograph to the public in 1878, he told the newspapers that he was designing a “monster disc” for the interior of the Statue of Liberty that would allow the statue to deliver speeches that could be heard up to the northern part of Manhattan and across the bay. Thankfully, no one pursued that strange promise, which would have led to the odd experience of walking in New York and suddenly hearing the Statue of Liberty “talking.” precious stones and pearls.
The sculptor Frédéric Auguste Bartholdi designed the statue to be fully illuminated, a feature that’s suggested in its official name, “La Liberté Eclairant le Monde,” or “Liberty Enlightening the World.” (At first the Statue of Liberty doubled as a lighthouse, given its position in the New York Harbor, but that didn’t last: It was decommissioned as such in 1902.) Originally the lighting scheme was to be red, white, and blue—with a giant searchlight trained on the statue’s face and shoulders. Officials claimed in 19th-century newspaper accounts that they would make the statue so bright as to cast a glow on the clouds of the night sky 100 miles away. The statue’s face was to be lit by a reflector so bright that newspapers described it as “4 million candle power.” Her diadem was meant to sparkle with electric light. These were lofty goals in the dawn of the electrical age, and they carried symbolism that has lost much of its potency now that electricity is taken for granted.
She held a golden cup in her hand, filled with abominable things and the filth of her adulteries.
In the torch, the flames are covered in gold. Looks enough like a cup. Also, in Isaiah 14:12 (another prophecy detailing the fall of Babylon that I didn't bother copying and pasting all of here) it refers to Babylon (or it's king) as "Lucifer, son of the morning". Lucifer means "light bringer" (hence the torch and the statue's original name being Liberty Enlightening the World) or "morning star" which is another name for the planet Venus which is associated with Inanna/Ishtar.
How art thou fallen from heaven, O Lucifer, son of the morning! how art thou cut down to the ground, which didst weaken the nations!
The beast and the ten horns you saw will hate the prostitute. They will bring her to ruin and leave her naked; they will eat her flesh and burn her with fire. 17 For God has put it into their hearts to accomplish his purpose by agreeing to hand over to the beast their royal authority
The 10 kings + the beast = 11.
The seven heads are seven hills on which the woman sits. They are also seven kings.
It has 7 spikes coming out of the head. https://timedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/01_00240318.jpg?quality=85 We're a very diverse country and Lady Liberty represents us taking in people from all countries. We pretty much control the world (for now) as the 7 hills represents the 7 continents, which is literally what is said they represent. Plus she's literally sitting on an island in the water.
Then the angel said to me, “The waters you saw, where the prostitute sits, are peoples, multitudes, nations and languages.
Masonic theories abound about the Statue of Liberty’s connection to the masons. Those who do ascribe to the theory cite Bartholdi’s and Eiffel’s membership in the Freemasons, that many original plans for the statue demonstrate the link and that many elements of the statue carry symbolic meaning. In addition, the masons presided over the cornerstone laying for the Statue of Liberty, a moment commemorated in a 1984 plaque in dedication to the masons on the 100th anniversary. In 1884, the grand master William A. Brodie laid the cornerstone with grand lodge members present. Brodie is reported to have said, “Why call upon the Masonic Fraternity to lay the cornerstone of such a structure as is here to be erected? No institution has done more to promote liberty and to free men from the trammels and chains of ignorance and tyranny than has Freemasonry.”
Then there's the poem that is inside the base.
The New Colossus Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,With conquering limbs astride from land to land;Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall standA mighty woman with a torch, whose flameIs the imprisoned lightning, and her nameMOTHER OF EXILES. From her beacon-handGlows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes commandThe air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame. "Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries sheWith silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
The Mother of exiles.
Prophecies of the Destruction of Babylon / America / New York
45 “Come out of her, my people!Run for your lives!Run from the fierce anger of the Lord.46 Do not lose heart or be afraidwhen rumors are heard in the land;one rumor comes this year, another the next,rumors of violence in the landand of ruler against ruler.47 For the time will surely comewhen I will punish the idols of Babylon;her whole land will be disgraced
Welcome to General Election 2016 – The Transition The Hegelian Dialectic is the transition of things. And the Illuminati loves to use it. We have been expecting it. We have read about it. And now it is here, in front of our faces. And many are IGNORING it. Folks, we are witnessing Hegelian logic on display. How we got here is an aside, but here we are. The disease is Hillary, and the medicine is Trump. For most folks, that’s all that matters. Case closed. What most citizens do not realize is that this is all a ruse. A mirage. It is being carried by, “they.” “They” are using the illusion, because America was stationary and stubborn. “You can’t New World Order me!” Americans said, “…Because we know about you.” Did the globalists go away and cry in their beer? Nope. They knew this would happen. It was expected. Butsome of the citizens heard a few radio shows that told them, “we’re gonna win.” Hegel’s dialectic utilizes the “mirage.” And then steers the people through its house of mirrors with scary monsters. In America’s case, the monster is a short woman with a trucker’s voice named Hillary. Their task is simple. Globalism. But how do they get there? Simple: Scare them with the Thesis – Hillary / the Enemy of Freedom. And offset her with the Anti-thesis – Donald the Lion-Hearted / Champion of the People. …Next stop – the Synthesis. Ashes with a rising phoenix. It's right there in front of us. Do you see it folks?
“The Double Headed Eagle of Lagash” is the oldest Royal Crest in the World… No emblematic device of today can boast of such antiquity. Its origin has been traced to the ancient city of Lagash. It was in use a thousand years before the Exodus from Egypt and more than two thousand years before the building of “King Solomon’s Temple.” “As time rolled on, it passed from the Sumerians to the men of Akkad, from the men of Akkad to the Hittites, from the denizens of Asia Minor to the Seljukian Sultans from whom it was brought by the Crusaders to the Emperors of the East and West, whose successors were the Hapsburgs and the Romanoffs.” “In recent excavations, the city-emblem of Lagash was disclosed also as a lion headed eagle sinking his claws into the bodies of two lions standing back to back. This is evidently a variant of the other eagle symbol”. “The city of Lagash is in Sumer in Southern Babylonia, between the Euphrates and the Tigris and near the modern Shatra in Iraq, Lagash had a calendar of twelve lunar months, a system of weights and measures, a banking and accounting system and was a center of art, literature, military and political power, five thousand years before Christ”. “In 102 B.C. the Roman Consul Marius decreed that the Eagle be displayed as a symbol of Imperial Rome. Later, as a world power, Rome used the Double-Headed Eagle, one head facing the East the other facing the West, symbolizing the universality and unity of the Empire. The Emperors of the Holy Roman Empire continued its use and the symbol was adopted later in Germany during the halcyon days of conquest and imperial power”. So far as is known, the Double-Headed Eagle was first used in Freemasonry in 1758 by a Masonic Body in Paris – the Emperors of the East and West. During a brief period the Masonic Emperors of the East and West controlled the advanced degrees then in use and became a precursor of the “Ancient Accepted Scottish Rite”. The Latin caption under the Double-Headed Eagle – “Spes Mea in Deo Est” translated is “My Hope Is In God”.
A part of this sounds familiar
“In recent excavations, the city-emblem of Lagash was disclosed also as a lion headed eagle sinking his claws into the bodies of two lions standing back to back. This is evidently a variant of the other eagle symbol”.
In 102 B.C. the Roman Consul Marius decreed that the Eagle be displayed as a symbol of Imperial Rome. Later, as a world power, Rome used the Double-Headed Eagle, one head facing the East the other facing the West, symbolizing the universality and unity of the Empire. The Emperors of the Holy Roman Empire continued its use and the symbol was adopted later in Germany during the halcyon days of conquest and imperial power”. So far as is known, the Double-Headed Eagle was first used in Freemasonry in 1758 by a Masonic Body in Paris – the Emperors of the East and West. During a brief period the Masonic Emperors of the East and West controlled the advanced degrees then in use and became a precursor of the “Ancient Accepted Scottish Rite”
The imperial bird with two heads simultaneously facing East and West has been Russia’s official coat of arms for centuries, with only a break during the Soviet era. The emblem, however, is far older than the country, with roots dating to ancient civilizations. An eagle on a country’s coat of arms is quite common – this bird is as popular a national symbol as the lion. “He is the king of birds; just like the lion is believed to rule all animals, and he is associated with the cult of the sun,” Georgy Vilinbakhov, head of Russia’s Heraldic Council, explains.
Title of article: Get Ready for the Phoenix THIRTY years from now, Americans, Japanese, Europeans, and people in many other rich countries, and some relatively poor ones will probably be paying for their shopping with the same currency. Prices will be quoted not in dollars, yen or D-marks but in, let’s say, the phoenix. The phoenix will be favoured by companies and shoppers because it will be more convenient than today’s national currencies, which by then will seem a quaint cause of much disruption to economic life in the last twentieth century.At the beginning of 1988 this appears an outlandish prediction. Proposals for eventual monetary union proliferated five and ten years ago, but they hardly envisaged the setbacks of 1987. The governments of the big economies tried to move an inch or two towards a more managed system of exchange rates – a logical preliminary, it might seem, to radical monetary reform. For lack of co-operation in their underlying economic policies they bungled it horribly, and provoked the rise in interest rates that brought on the stock market crash of October. These events have chastened exchange-rate reformers. The market crash taught them that the pretence of policy co-operation can be worse than nothing, and that until real co-operation is feasible (i.e., until governments surrender some economic sovereignty) further attempts to peg currencies will flounder The new world economyThe biggest change in the world economy since the early 1970’s is that flows of money have replaced trade in goods as the force that drives exchange rates. as a result of the relentless integration of the world’s financial markets, differences in national economic policies can disturb interest rates (or expectations of future interest rates) only slightly, yet still call forth huge transfers of financial assets from one country to another. These transfers swamp the flow of trade revenues in their effect on the demand and supply for different currencies, and hence in their effect on exchange rates. As telecommunications technology continues to advance, these transactions will be cheaper and faster still. With unco-ordinated economic policies, currencies can get only more volatile. In all these ways national economic boundaries are slowly dissolving. As the trend continues, the appeal of a currency union across at least the main industrial countries will seem irresistible to everybody except foreign-exchange traders and governments. In the phoenix zone, economic adjustment to shifts in relative prices would happen smoothly and automatically, rather as it does today between different regions within large economies (a brief on pages 74-75 explains how.) The absence of all currency risk would spur trade, investment and employment. The phoenix zone would impose tight constraints on national governments. There would be no such thing, for instance, as a national monetary policy. The world phoenix supply would be fixed by a new central bank, descended perhaps from the IMF. The world inflation rate – and hence, within narrow margins, each national inflation rate- would be in its charge. Each country could use taxes and public spending to offset temporary falls in demand, but it would have to borrow rather than print money to finance its budget deficit. With no recourse to the inflation tax, governments and their creditors would be forced to judge their borrowing and lending plans more carefully than they do today. This means a big loss of economic sovereignty, but the trends that make the phoenix so appealing are taking that sovereignty away in any case. Even in a world of more-or-less floating exchange rates, individual governments have seen their policy independence checked by an unfriendly outside world. As the next century approaches, the natural forces that are pushing the world towards economic integration will offer governments a broad choice. They can go with the flow, or they can build barricades. Preparing the way for the phoenix will mean fewer pretended agreements on policy and more real ones. It will mean allowing and then actively promoting the private-sector use of an international money alongside existing national monies. That would let people vote with their wallets for the eventual move to full currency union. The phoenix would probably start as a cocktail of national currencies, just as the Special Drawing Right is today. In time, though, its value against national currencies would cease to matter, because people would choose it for its convenience and the stability of its purchasing power. The alternative – to preserve policymaking autonomy- would involve a new proliferation of truly draconian controls on trade and capital flows. This course offers governments a splendid time. They could manage exchange-rate movements, deploy monetary and fiscal policy without inhibition, and tackle the resulting bursts of inflation with prices and incomes polices. It is a growth-crippling prospect. Pencil in the phoenix for around 2018, and welcome it when it comes.
So it was a random Sunday: bed, eat, repeat until I went online and I saw a link by a new user called @limon. There was a small introduction to a YouTube video which at first glance didn’t look interesting, but what the hell? Lets read this. https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/...lLpi-xYDCw.png He talked about an article from The Economist, year 1988, coin, phoenix and then Zoin… wtf? Anyways, I opened the link (don’t open links from strangers) and watched the video in Youtube, (it’s in Spanish) @limon claims in the video (minute 5) that he actually found a not so well know cryptocurrency (yet) by doing some research on an article from 1988 and he is somehow convinced it’s going to be huge. Yes, @limon saw the writing and thought maybe I should check this and find out which is the coin of the future. As crazy as it seems, finding a cryptocurrency by doing research on a 1988 magazine its quite incredible. Is it a coincidence or is it a prediction? Not even @limon knows, but there’s a few things that can blow up your mind here. This is the article from 1988. It claims that there will be a currency (referred as “phoenix”) that will be used by everybody in several countries in 2018. So yes, you all might say “the coin is called the Phoenix”. There’s actually a coin called Phoenixcoin but that didn’t seem to convince @limon once he checked it out in www.coinmarketcap.com (it sucked even for @limon who wanted to believe with all his heart) But @limon didn’t give up, he thought what if its hidden? So he decided to take a closer look at the magazine cover. https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/...LKufsoJVug.png He noticed that he could read the letters backward (um…interesting) https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/...Ir1KSVOMbw.png He got XIN3ONd NET by reading the cover letter backwards and he said well, XIN is Chinese, and found out in google translator that XIN meant NEW. Then 3ONd he looked at it and thought this is Russian… and it was. That weird word that would not mean anything to someone meant something for @limon so he decided to google translate it. https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/...uui5nS3hFg.png Well yeah 3ONd is Russian and means ZOI, but wait is this a coin? @Limon decided to search “ZOI” in www.coinmarketcap.com. https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/...LN2UCCLQwg.png WOW, Zoin existed. He ended up with the sentence NEW ZOI NET, in which Zoi was an actual currency. He starting searching now all about Zoin (DYOR) and liked everything he saw. The team, the community and development its very much updated. Got even more carried away when he saw Zoin’s logo: https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/...4CV6Ln5sFQ.png https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/...y75KEGoyHQ.png And when he researched even deeper, he found out that ZOIN was left by its first developer and got taken over by its community from all over the world. Yes, Zoin emerged from the ashes. What? wait. Zoin is also a Phoenix. Anyways, @limon found all the signs of a prophecy from 1988. He couldn’t wait so he joined Zoin’s community and shared his video. By the way he bought some Zoin. After finding the last lost prophecy he had no plans on missing out. Check all about Zoin in the following links. You can reach out to the team on Discord, website address is www.zoinofficial.com and their twitter @zoinofficial You better don’t miss it. Its a prophecy. Thank you limon. @torrmara
I know you guys don't like TA but here I tried to summurize the whole BTC situation from 2015 untill this day
Disclaimer: I am not an English native speaker and didn't even learn it at school. I don't have any BTC and all my holdings are so spread in altcoins that I am just too lazy to move them around to take adavantage from what I wrote down below. I hope at least you will find it usefull. You can take a look at the original post and at the chart here If you don't need it here goes only the text Looking at the logarithmic chart gives us an insightful view of what is going on. What did happen on 17th December of 2017? Bitcoin reached its new ATH at $19891. The same week estimated the biggest volume since June of 2016. Theory says that only huge volume ( in most cases the biggest one throughout the whole trend ) is capable of turning around any trend. Of course it works only in hindsight but probability of such turn of events was quite high then. Anyway, let's move on. What did happen on 11th February of 2018? After 7 weeks of downtrend BTC makes rapid move down and achieves $6000 level which is bought out very quickly and our weekly candle formes a pretty "hammer". It was actually a very important week/day because of four reasons which I will name later but before we adavence into that let's draw one of the most "magical" things in TA - Fibonacci levels. The logarithmic view shows us a clear picture of where is the trend's beggining and where is its end. Evidently that Bitcoin begun to rise from $221 mark so it is not a problem to draw a propriate Fibonacci retracement levels as the end ot this move is as much evident as its beggining. The main number here is the Golden Ratio or 0.618. The same "smart" books say that corrections are keen to happen untill that level is achieved and believe me it works most of the time. If 0.618 level is broken it means the trend is broken and it is not a correction anymore. It happened to be that our 0.618 level lays on $7500 mark. So let's come back to 11th February of 2018. Though Bitcoin dipped below that level weekly candle hadn't been closed there and that week closed its candle at $8020 mark with the followed journey to $11900 (which, by the way, is another Fibonacci level AND also is on the too obvious for everyone resistance line B). The next reason why this candle is so appealing is because of its volume. Do you remember that part about volume and trend-turning things? Here it is even more exemplary. The biggest volume since late 2015. And it is in a falling, almost crashing market. The third reason is so hateful by many is the support line. We can't call everything a support line but if it has served as a support line three or more times then it more probably than not it is a support line. The price did excatly that with the support line A. First in late March of 2017, the second time in July and the third in February 2018. The fourth reason is the next: Stoch RSI became oversold as it hadn't been since June of 2016. In such conditions it is hard enough for bears to push the price down. So what is happening now? Now is the most interesting situation of them all. Currently the price stands on a) 0.618 Fib Level b) the support line A c) the Weekly Exponential Moving Average 50. What will continue the downtrend? Closing of the weekly candle below $7500 mark. Why? Because the support line will be broken, the 0.618 Fib level will be broken and the EMA 50 will be broken ( and our hearts too). So what then? Then we have only two price targets - $4500 which is 0.786 Fib Retracement and coincidies with the previous "ATH" after which the market fell by 40% AND coincidies with Trend-Based Fib Extension 4.618 level of the previous bull-run and crash in 2014-2015 AND with the upper trend line D of the previous uptrend channel. If $4500 level will be broken too then say hello to our old support line C and our good old "healthy" channel which we left in May of 2017. According to that channel the "true" price of BTC right now should be around $3000. What will confirm the uptrend? Breaking the resistance line B what will mean breaking the 0.5 Fib level too and staying there for a while with retesting that level in a perfect case. That can happen as continuation of the currently unfolding double-bottom pattern and I think we already are on the second bottom as the previous dip to 6k was a result of panic sellers losing their shit. My thoughts are the next: since April of 2017 we perphaps have entered the bubble phase when left already on its own not quite healthy uptrend channel CD. So the price "needs" to come back there. There is other scenario where we reach our good old channel CD by just going sideways. Then we can expect 4500$ by 2019 in any case of further healthy grow. But the problem with that scenario is that then we will see 85% loss in value which looks pretty unreasonable as of now when we have upcoming LN and the whole world gradually legitimize Bitcoin and Blockchain. What gives me the most confidence in 6k be the ultimate floor is the volume with which the market rebounced. If that is smart money than they won't let it go lower and the current price action is an obligate procedure to shake off all the weak-hands. In addition about 60%-80% of people in /cryptocurrency are bearish (me included) so that also is a good sign for the upcoming break of the downtrend.
The noob DCA strategy is ongoing. Continue making your regularly scheduled, affordable, and responsible purchases using disposable income that you can afford to lose. We have completed 95 days in the noob DCA and there are 146 days left for you to establish your first full position in Bitcoin. 37 out of 95 days in this DCA have closed below yesterday's closing price of 6,937.07. If you bought the closing price every day since the start of this DCA your USD cost average per BTC would be 7,371.34.
Increasing contributions to your DCA
I'm going to discuss some non-standard options you can consider if you're committed to a DCA in this market and/or want to marginally improve your performance. Today is a good day to consider temporarily increasing how much BTC you regularly buy. If you choose to increase how much you're buying you should expect that to last about 7 weeks. If the price goes above your cost average then you should only buy a regular amount. The DCA is in the red, so, if you were planning to jump in on this thing, you could jump in today and beat out everyone who has been trying to DCA in since the beginning of May. However, anyone buying BTC over the last three months probably has a considerable sum built up... I'm not confident that a big purchase will beat out a DCA from here, especially considering that the market just made a large move that approached a local low. There's nothing to prove that the bottom is in. However, I'll be very surprised if the price breaks down to new lows before the end of the year. That said, you should acknowledge that there's real risk that devastating new lows will be observed before the end of the year.
My internal narrative has become focused on the bubble cycle and subsequent periods of stability that have always been observed after extended bear markets. In the first week of June I observed that we were likely starting a period of extended stability that could last from seven to fifteen weeks. We seem to be well within that period, and now a little over nine weeks in, I think there's reason to expect as many as seven more weeks of price stability. The number of comparable periods of stability has dropped from seven to four. Most notably, the 2014 crash cycle is no longer has a comparable period of stability. Most notably, the period of stability the precipitated the second crash was also an extended period of bearish performance instead of sideways performance. However, we have a 25% chance of going sideways for one more extended period of stability. 75% of observed periods have gone into bull markets that resulted in exceptionally large bubbles within the following ten months. All four projections show that the price will approach the ATH within a year.
Trading View Stability Update
I've been updating a narrative I have about the market for the last six months or so. If you're up for a sort of choose-your-own-adventure you can see that narrative develop as the bear market wore us down this year.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3Wl7ff9m-Projecting-From-Stability-Continued/ Bitcoin is 3 weeks into a period of extended price stability that encapsulates the last 25% of the bear market. Sentiment remains low and neutral. However, recovery will be apparent over the next 7 - 20 weeks. New platforms and markets will be announced or come online but positive news will not seem substantially change prices. A gradual parabolic breakout from stability is likely after the next 7 weeks. Significant price discovery has been established in this range and the bottom of a new channel has been established, but could be tested. Continued growth is observed in institutional markets and new international markets. Major financial tools for institutions have been announced. Crackdowns on ICOs and altcoin speculation have kiboshed unchecked growth in alt markets, which continue to decline. BTC's market domination is confirmed and will push over 50% of the total Crypto market cap soon. Large leveraged positions against the altcoin markets still aren't available to most traders who operate in compliance with local laws, but they will be made available over the next 1 - 2 years.
Medium-term consolidation ends
Resistance to growth remained through June, July, and August. Bearish and moderate performance was accompanied by price stability that is still increasing. Heavy resistance remains before bullish sentiment can return. Sideways and comparatively moderate performance is likely through August and possibly through September.
New ATH sometime between November 2018 and June 2019
Heavy resistance is broken—drawn from the 2014 ATH and the December 2018 ATH—and moderate sentiment keeps bitcoin in a consolidation phase under the previous ATH for months. A new wave of adoption from new markets increases BTC volume to previously unimaginable levels. Full capitulation from alt market speculation exposes frivolous and or fraudulent Crypto assets and securities. Government crackdowns and arrests begin to pile up in alt market ICOs. Public outcry against abuse and fraud triggers international concern. Capital escapes from small alts to the top 5 - 10. There are less than 20 Cryptos with a market cap over 500 million USD. Speculation about the halving and institutional adoption lay the groundwork for a new round of irrational exuberance.
The red ascending wedge drawn from the 2013 ATH is difficult to break
We bounce off an ascending wedge and establish a new ATH between December 2018 and January 2020. The bottom of the channel is not retested. Capital flight into BTC from alts eventually pushes bitcoin through the ascending wedge from 2013, which altcoin markets will likely never push through. Bitcoin's adoption rate rapidly grows. It’s fueled by speculation; institutional adoption will try but cannot dominate BTC ownership. Speculation attracts a new wave of users who are disenchanted with traditional investments. Bitcoin's young male demographic starts to diversify and enter new markets internationally. Lightning wallets become the standard BTC UX. LocalBitcoin processes 15 to 30 million USD in transactions daily. Press praises BTC as a tool ready for “Main Street.” A practical use case for lightning in retail businesses is implemented in some markets.
Bounce off the new long-term channel in early 2020
Speculative fever ignites and BTC markets observe substantial resistance for the first time since Dec 2017. The new ATH is somewhere between 100k and 220k USD/BTC and the correction triggers a new BTC obituaries. Hitting the top of the channel signals a medium-term bear market and moves prices into a comparatively moderate range, under 100K USD/BTC. Bouncing off the top of the channel completes before speculation about the halving takes hold of sentiment in early 2020. 1m USD price targets are commonly issued from established financial institutions by the end of 2020. https://www.moonmath.win Good hunting.
Here is the chart of Bitcoin. Uptrend, Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend Consolidation… If this were one of those tests you took in grade school where they ask you what’s next in this pattern, you would say Breakout and then Uptrend right? Yea that’s what I’m gonna go with. It hasn’t done much since breaking out above 10,000. But if we’re above that ... The chart below displays Bitcoin’s price throughout different timeframes. Scale: Linear Logarithmic. Hide events ... Newsweek Claims Dorian Nakamoto is Bitcoin's Creator - March 6, 2014. Bitcoin value: $662.57 Bitcoin value 10 days later: $631.25 View Event #31 on Chart. In an article titled "The Face Behind Bitcoin", journalist Leah McGrath Goodman writes that an unemployed engineer in ... Category: Learn the Bitcoin basics, What Is Bitcoin Mining ? Tags: bitcoin mining, bitcoin technical, bitcoin technical tutorial, bitcoin tutorial, bitcoins tutorial, tutorial. The Untold Story Of Bitcoin And The Silk Road Leave a comment. March 16, 2014 by Mat Bissonnette This sentiment is in line with the outlook for BTC shared by another trader who predicted the rapid recovery in Bitcoin’s price. Textbook Chart Pattern Predicts Bitcoin Has More Upside. When Bitcoin crashed as low as $3,500 on March 13th, few expected the coin to bounce back as fast as it did. In fact, at the time, there were many that ... The Bitcoin Baron —————– One graph shows the activity of a Gox account that Chang and Becica dub "The Bitcoin Baron" (see chart at the top of the page). The baron got in early and ...
How the bitcoin price is rollercoasting this weekend 28 June 2014
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. http://bitcoinbaba.com/bitcoin-price-chart-bitstamp/ I look at he bitcoin price action this Saturday morning. Join me in trading the bitcoin charts. Close. This video is unavailable. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE Like, Subscribe, Comment & Share, if You Enjoy the Content. Thank you for your time and support. Videos will now be Monday, Wednesday, Friday Evening EST unless ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue